I don't usually do this. It has been only a few days since I last said anything in public (i.e. here), and the subjects of economy and politics have little if anything to do with me. Nevertheless, I feel compelled to vent a bit about a "doom-and-gloom" article that I just read on cnn.com. Apparently, according to the author and countless people who know far more about such things than I do, I should be very nervous about the fact that inflation decreased by 1% in October. I am told that this is fancy talk for "prices dropped by 1% in October." We can all see why that's good for us (consumers), but it is apparently bad for everyone else, and ultimately will be bad for us too. The reason for this is simple (quoting the article): "If prices fall below the cost it takes to produce products, businesses will likely have to cut production and slash payrolls. Rising unemployment would cut demand even further, sending the economy into a vicious circle." See, that's bad news. Right?
I'm no economistician, but it seems to me that maybe the people writing these articles are stupid. According to the article, prices - measured through inflation, I guess - have risen consistently to reach a "17-year high" in July. What happened in July? Oil prices started to fall. Then they continued to fall. Finally, they're still falling. Nonetheless, it is a threat to our very survival if prices, which have been rising steadily (2-3% seems like a decent general estimate of annual inflation in the U.S. over the past decade) ever since some time a LONG time ago, stop rising at an unusually fast rate. Even with the recent drop in prices, our annual inflation is at 3.7%, and it's still just November. Nobody knows where we'll go from here, but my guess is that we'll keep dropping to the 2-3% range for the year like we've had in previous years.
"If prices fall below the cost it takes to produce products..." Yeah, that'll be the day. Wal-Mart has suddenly decided to be a not-for-profit organization, donating all its merchandise at cost or below. The whole world has gone crazy, and money is no longer a thing to be grasped. IF prices WERE ever to fall BELOW cost (and I insist that they never will), we'd all just run right out and buy them, then sell them on ebay. The morons who somehow started selling things at a loss would realize their error and jack the prices back up to the profitable section in their scales. And I suppose then some genius at cnn.com will write an article about how great it is for everyone that prices are skyrocketing again (I didn't notice such an article while gas prices were shooting through the roof, but maybe I just missed it...).
So my advice for now is that we all panic (like Real Madrid!) and make a bunch of split-second decisions based on one measure of our economy's growth. That way, we'll at least know we reacted soon enough, right? Don't take my word for it, but I'm predicting that prices drop for a bit longer, to catch up with where they should have been before oil prices were artificially inflated to ridiculous heights (that's my accusation for the day), or perhaps a little lower, just to teach them a lesson. Hopefully enough Americans (U.S. Americans, in this context) have made permanent lifestyle changes in response to the events of the past couple years that we won't have to deal with the repercussions of another "oil crisis" ever again.
P.s. To anyone who is willing to prove me wrong (I'm looking at you, Martin, Taylor, Gibson, Olson) by offering me something for nothing, or for less than cost: I'm willing to consider your donations!
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Arrivals
Every once in a while I have nothing to say. Actually, that happens all the time. In those times, only my internal moral obligation (along with my thousands of adoring readers) keeps me moving forward with the compelling monologue that is this blog. And now that you've all left in disgust, I'll continue with my discourse in solitude.
The two most important things that have happened in my last month both concern arrivals. First off, my sister in law was finally able to make her long overdue entry into the U.S. People whose patience and resolve survive the whole U.S. Visa process (in many cases well over a year long, with numerous interviews and innumerable document submissions) are to be greatly commended, and if it weren't for the desire to be reunited with loved ones I'm not sure how many people would see it all the way through. Well, that's an unnecessary editorial: all I mean is that I'm elated for my brother and his wife!
The next arrival in the last month concerns my parents, who are now back in Europe, if only for a few more weeks. They had a very productive time in southern Africa, and (not least importantly) they managed to stay healthy almost the whole time, no small feat given the conditions they have occasionally experienced there. One of our main concerns was my mom's health and recovery from the cancer surgery, but the doctors assured her that it wouldn't be a problem for her to travel, even to places where medical attention is sometimes pretty rudimentary. So I am happy to report that they both arrived back in Europe healthy and ready to work some more--good thing, too, because they both had classes to teach a week later!
Those are the most important and interesting things that have happened in the last month, so the rest of this post will just be inane ramblings about things that aren't of great interest to the reading community. But I suppose if you made it past my first paragraph you'll read anything, right? Ha!
When I'm not working on my dissertation--and I confess that I invest a lot more time in that than I would like--I occasionally do other things. Those things involve running (which I hate), watching soccer (I like that, especially when Alicia watches with me), watching comedic television series like Malcolm in the Middle (one of the greatest shows ever written) with Alicia, going to church across the Roman bridge (sometimes when I get there there's even a service of some sort, though my odds are not much better than 50-50 lately), eating pork products at the many tapas joints in town, walking up and down the walking streets imagining what it would be like to go into a store (I imagine it would be miserable, for the most part, so I try not to go in), and finally, thinking about which guitar I should buy. As always, the list builds to a crescendo of emphasis, and you will have rightly guessed that the only item in that last sentence that will receive any further treatment is the last one.
My search for a guitar began when I realized that I like guitars and Spain is a good place to buy a guitar. In other words, about two days after I got here, when I discovered a musical instrument store in town. At the time, I was fully invested in the idea that I would be buying a scooter for scooting around, so a guitar seemed like an unjustifiable luxury item, especially given the world economic crisis (I had to sneak one reference in, didn't I? Everyone else does...). Sadly, from a scooting perspective, at least, prices for the delightful little two-wheeled suicide machines--along with a valid insurance policy--proved unexpectedly high, even prohibitive. In a sense, you could say that my right to own a scooter was violated by the economic crisis. That and clever pricing, perhaps...
At any rate, having suffered such great oppression and somehow survived it, I picked myself up off the floor of the downtrodden and raised my sights to a next lofty objective, namely the acquisition of a magnificent Spanish guitar. Then I realized just how lofty that objective was, deciding instead to pursue the more realistic objective of a very nice Spanish guitar for a reasonable price. Having made up my mind, the next task was to identify the exact instrument to suit my needs. The store I had initially visited carries a range of guitars varying from barely instruments to quite some way out of my price range. The three or four guitars in the middle proved to be made by Admira and Alhambra, and in this small sample the Alhambra models seemed more suited to my needs. Naturally, my next step was to read up on these guitars online. While I was reading up on these instruments, I came across loads of information on a number of other manufacturers whose instruments were in the same range as those of Alhambra, including Admira, Almansa, Bartoli, Camps, etc. Obviously, there are more manufacturers that I could possibly list here, and in particular there are quite a few companies that make guitars that meet my first set of requirements while quite surpassing those I later adopted. I'm just writing about what I did, so I'll stick to the plot.
I eventually asked a guitarist from our church whether he knew of any instrument shops in town, and he mentioned two, one that I already knew and another in the same general area. In my studies I had discovered that the prices at the store I had visited were a bit higher than list, or right there, so I decided that my best bet was this other store. When I next had an evening free, I forced Alicia to walk across town with me to see what we could discover. The fellow working in the store explained to me that all their guitars are at least 15% off the manufacturer's recommended price, and that he can order anything they don't have in stock to give me a chance to check it out before I decide what to buy. I tried out a few of the guitars, but most of them were so far out of tune that I didn't feel mean enough to make Alicia wait while I tuned them all and then tried them out.
A few days later, I wandered over there alone to get a last look at all the instruments, having pretty much made up my mind that I would buy an Alhambra guitar in one of four models. I was highly disappointed to learn from the salesman that they didn't have a single one of the four guitars I wanted to play in stock. They are expecting a shipment of one of them to come in some time in the future (I've played that game with stores in Portugal and know it's best to pretend you never heard anything), so I went ahead and placed an order to see the guitar I am most confident I'll want to keep. Fortunately, the salesman is in no hurry to sell me anything, so he again insisted that if I don't want the guitar after it gets here, he can send it back and order a new one, or not order a new one--whatever I want.
I had been considering two "Flamenco" models, but upon closer inspection realized that the features that distinguish those from the traditional classical guitars (thinner body, lighter woods, lower action) basically contribute to a less pleasant sounding guitar under my normal playing conditions. If I were a talented musician, or an aspiring Flamenco guitarist, that would be one thing. But I'm just some guy who wants a guitar that makes him sound better than he is. So in the end, I opted for an all solid-wood guitar, meaning "mahogany" back and sides (it's actually sapele, if anyone knows what that is), cedar top and neck (reinforced with ebony), and ebony bridge. Eventually, if the promised shipment of other models ever arrives, I'll be able to check those out and compare them with the one I ordered, but I'm not holding my breath. I hope my guitar will arrive at the shop in the next month or so, but since they may not have even started making it yet, there's no guarantee on that. I'll try to remember to post an update about the new guitar when and if it ever arrives...
Oh, looks like we'll be having my parents over to Spain for Thanksgiving and then we'll be in Portugal for a few days later in December for Christmas and a bit of sight-seeing with some friends, so give me a call if you're going to be around! Ha again!
The two most important things that have happened in my last month both concern arrivals. First off, my sister in law was finally able to make her long overdue entry into the U.S. People whose patience and resolve survive the whole U.S. Visa process (in many cases well over a year long, with numerous interviews and innumerable document submissions) are to be greatly commended, and if it weren't for the desire to be reunited with loved ones I'm not sure how many people would see it all the way through. Well, that's an unnecessary editorial: all I mean is that I'm elated for my brother and his wife!
The next arrival in the last month concerns my parents, who are now back in Europe, if only for a few more weeks. They had a very productive time in southern Africa, and (not least importantly) they managed to stay healthy almost the whole time, no small feat given the conditions they have occasionally experienced there. One of our main concerns was my mom's health and recovery from the cancer surgery, but the doctors assured her that it wouldn't be a problem for her to travel, even to places where medical attention is sometimes pretty rudimentary. So I am happy to report that they both arrived back in Europe healthy and ready to work some more--good thing, too, because they both had classes to teach a week later!
Those are the most important and interesting things that have happened in the last month, so the rest of this post will just be inane ramblings about things that aren't of great interest to the reading community. But I suppose if you made it past my first paragraph you'll read anything, right? Ha!
When I'm not working on my dissertation--and I confess that I invest a lot more time in that than I would like--I occasionally do other things. Those things involve running (which I hate), watching soccer (I like that, especially when Alicia watches with me), watching comedic television series like Malcolm in the Middle (one of the greatest shows ever written) with Alicia, going to church across the Roman bridge (sometimes when I get there there's even a service of some sort, though my odds are not much better than 50-50 lately), eating pork products at the many tapas joints in town, walking up and down the walking streets imagining what it would be like to go into a store (I imagine it would be miserable, for the most part, so I try not to go in), and finally, thinking about which guitar I should buy. As always, the list builds to a crescendo of emphasis, and you will have rightly guessed that the only item in that last sentence that will receive any further treatment is the last one.
My search for a guitar began when I realized that I like guitars and Spain is a good place to buy a guitar. In other words, about two days after I got here, when I discovered a musical instrument store in town. At the time, I was fully invested in the idea that I would be buying a scooter for scooting around, so a guitar seemed like an unjustifiable luxury item, especially given the world economic crisis (I had to sneak one reference in, didn't I? Everyone else does...). Sadly, from a scooting perspective, at least, prices for the delightful little two-wheeled suicide machines--along with a valid insurance policy--proved unexpectedly high, even prohibitive. In a sense, you could say that my right to own a scooter was violated by the economic crisis. That and clever pricing, perhaps...
At any rate, having suffered such great oppression and somehow survived it, I picked myself up off the floor of the downtrodden and raised my sights to a next lofty objective, namely the acquisition of a magnificent Spanish guitar. Then I realized just how lofty that objective was, deciding instead to pursue the more realistic objective of a very nice Spanish guitar for a reasonable price. Having made up my mind, the next task was to identify the exact instrument to suit my needs. The store I had initially visited carries a range of guitars varying from barely instruments to quite some way out of my price range. The three or four guitars in the middle proved to be made by Admira and Alhambra, and in this small sample the Alhambra models seemed more suited to my needs. Naturally, my next step was to read up on these guitars online. While I was reading up on these instruments, I came across loads of information on a number of other manufacturers whose instruments were in the same range as those of Alhambra, including Admira, Almansa, Bartoli, Camps, etc. Obviously, there are more manufacturers that I could possibly list here, and in particular there are quite a few companies that make guitars that meet my first set of requirements while quite surpassing those I later adopted. I'm just writing about what I did, so I'll stick to the plot.
I eventually asked a guitarist from our church whether he knew of any instrument shops in town, and he mentioned two, one that I already knew and another in the same general area. In my studies I had discovered that the prices at the store I had visited were a bit higher than list, or right there, so I decided that my best bet was this other store. When I next had an evening free, I forced Alicia to walk across town with me to see what we could discover. The fellow working in the store explained to me that all their guitars are at least 15% off the manufacturer's recommended price, and that he can order anything they don't have in stock to give me a chance to check it out before I decide what to buy. I tried out a few of the guitars, but most of them were so far out of tune that I didn't feel mean enough to make Alicia wait while I tuned them all and then tried them out.
A few days later, I wandered over there alone to get a last look at all the instruments, having pretty much made up my mind that I would buy an Alhambra guitar in one of four models. I was highly disappointed to learn from the salesman that they didn't have a single one of the four guitars I wanted to play in stock. They are expecting a shipment of one of them to come in some time in the future (I've played that game with stores in Portugal and know it's best to pretend you never heard anything), so I went ahead and placed an order to see the guitar I am most confident I'll want to keep. Fortunately, the salesman is in no hurry to sell me anything, so he again insisted that if I don't want the guitar after it gets here, he can send it back and order a new one, or not order a new one--whatever I want.
I had been considering two "Flamenco" models, but upon closer inspection realized that the features that distinguish those from the traditional classical guitars (thinner body, lighter woods, lower action) basically contribute to a less pleasant sounding guitar under my normal playing conditions. If I were a talented musician, or an aspiring Flamenco guitarist, that would be one thing. But I'm just some guy who wants a guitar that makes him sound better than he is. So in the end, I opted for an all solid-wood guitar, meaning "mahogany" back and sides (it's actually sapele, if anyone knows what that is), cedar top and neck (reinforced with ebony), and ebony bridge. Eventually, if the promised shipment of other models ever arrives, I'll be able to check those out and compare them with the one I ordered, but I'm not holding my breath. I hope my guitar will arrive at the shop in the next month or so, but since they may not have even started making it yet, there's no guarantee on that. I'll try to remember to post an update about the new guitar when and if it ever arrives...Oh, looks like we'll be having my parents over to Spain for Thanksgiving and then we'll be in Portugal for a few days later in December for Christmas and a bit of sight-seeing with some friends, so give me a call if you're going to be around! Ha again!
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