Inequality

Is German Bundesliga officially the most interesting professional soccer league, or does it just have the highest attendance? While England, Spain, and Italy are all busily celebrating the victors of their respective leagues, Scotland is gripped by its perennial (and by now, insanely boring) two-horse race between Rangers and Celtic, Holland's Alkmaar celebrated their title what seems like months ago, Portugal's FC Porco remain the only class side in their league, and Marseille are still trying to keep things interesting in France, as they now sit 3 points behind upstarts Bordeaux, with a game in hand and two weeks left of the season.

The reason I think Germany has the highest attendance is that some soccernet writer has been insisting on that fact for years, and I have no statistics that might disagree. Certainly, the large number of bottom-half-of-the-table clubs in most of Europe's leagues means that the top sides have to generate a LOT more interest, if attendance is to remain relatively high, on average. Unfortunately for most leagues, the "coefficient of interestingness" for most sides in most matches remains relatively low. The reason for this is simple: as the rich get richer, the gap between the best clubs and the rest of the clubs in each leagues grows larger and larger. Thus, for example, England's "big 4" currently sit a minimum of 9 and a maximum of 27 points ahead of the fifth-placed side, and the tenth-placed side is a full 40 points behind the side in first. If you threw out the top 4 in England, you'd be left with a fairly normal distribution of clubs, where the only gap between positions greater than 3 points is the 6-point spread between second and third place (really, 6th and 7th place). England is by far the most unequal league, mostly because of the way the top sides have managed to market themselves globally and corner the market even in Great Britain. While attendance for those clubs is always outstanding, the same cannot be said for the lower-side clubs, nor can a full stadium for the latter be compared, numerically, to those of the top 4. And nothing will change this year. We know who will play in the UCL, we know who will make it into UEFA, and by now we don't even care who gets relegated.

A similar situation holds for Spain and for Italy, where there are 2 and 3 big clubs, respectively. While there is typically some small amount of drama among these top few clubs throughout the season, the rest of the league might as well be playing as a different division, for all the drama it contributes to the top clubs. Villareal is a good example: sure, they challenged Barcelona and they beat Real this season, but they stand 27 points behind Barça and 19 behind Real, in fifth place. Barcelona currently stand 41 points ahead of the tenth-placed side, and are over 20 points above third-placed Sevilla. Again, if we ditch the top two clubs, the league almost starts to look competitive.

The dividing line between Italy's top clubs and the rest of the pack is a little less pronounced, at least this season: 3rd-placed Juventus is only a game ahead of Fiorentina. In fact, the biggest gap between positions in Serie A right now is the 7-point-spread between first and second places. If Juventus hadn't spent the second half of the season choking, they might very well be close to Inter's point standing right now, though again this would still place the usual suspects in title contention. In both Spain and Italy, there is no comparison between the numbers of people that can be accommodated by top-tier clubs and the rest of the sides. Moreover, matches between middle-of-the-table clubs in both leagues tend to be hugely under-attended, if the massive numbers of empty seats shown on TV are any indication. Very similar pictures emerge throughout Europe, where there are typically between two and four top, successful, clubs in each league, and the remainder of clubs serve as spoilers and feeders for the upper crust. The Dutch league has broken out of that mold somewhat this season, with the usual frontrunners Ajax and Eindhoven failing to make the top two spots. But it's safe to assume that both of them will fare better than either Twente or Alkmaar in European competition next season, so things will no doubt return to their usual state soon enough.

By contrast with all these situations, Germany's league still has yet to be decided, going into its final round next weekend. The full league gap is only 40 points (between first and last place), compared to the typical 50+ point gap in other leagues. More importantly, at least in terms of excitement and drama, the gap between first and 10th place is only 21 points, compared to 40 in both England and Spain, and 30 in Italy (France 30, Holland 37, Scotland 46 – and this is a 12-team league!!!, Portugal 35). To put it another way, a 10-point spread in Germany nets you the top 6 clubs, whereas in England it gets you 2, in Spain 2, and in Italy 2 (France 3, Holland 1, Scotland 2, Portugal 2). A 20-point spread in Germany encloses the top 9, whereas in England you still only get 4, in Spain 3, and in Italy 5 (France 7, Holland 5, Scotland 2, Portugal 5).

The Bundesliga may not be the most entertaining league to watch (though the attendance figures there might suggest that it in fact is), but frankly, how could we possibly know that, if it is almost NEVER broadcast outside of Germany? The fact that there is only a 3-point spread among the top 4 clubs going into the last week of the season certainly makes things far more interesting to me, especially since I don’t particularly care who wins the league. Fans of Manchester United, Inter Milan, and Barcelona are of course ecstatic that their sides have already clinched their respective leagues, and perhaps rightly so. But those of us who watch the game for the enjoyment of a tight competition, for some beautiful soccer (without diving crybabies who feel they’re entitled to special refereeing treatment), and sometimes to see the underdogs come up big, are guaranteed to be more and more consistently disappointed with things in these top European leagues. As revenues for the most successful clubs increase, their position at the top will also grow more and more secure, making the creation of a breakaway league all the more likely. The only other workable solution, as far as I can tell, is the introduction of salary caps, and I don’t think the Europeans, particularly those involved in the upper-level politics of the sport, are going to be too excited about a level playing field. As a last resort, I can always console myself with the fact that Wolfsburg, last year’s 5th-place club and the 15th-ranked team 2 seasons ago, have given the entire Bundesliga a reason to believe that money is still not the only driving force in the game.